Simulated Season #3: The Thiiiiiiiirrrrrrrrd

  

Our third simulated season follows the recently announced week-by-week schedule, and again uses a random number generator to decide the winner of each game. Each team's range of numbers used in this simulation has been updated based on performance at Satellite #1 and other information coming in.

Simulated Standings
Garcia Division	W	L
El Diablos 2	19	19
Ducks 3	17	11
Belgian Wiffles 0	12	16
Islanders 0	6	22
Ringler Division	W	L
Wicked Aces 1	22	6
Westside Warriors 4	15	13
Holy Balls 0	13	15
King Friday 0	8	20
30 - 34

One team who benefits from the updates, to no one's surprise, is Belgian Wiffles. Their 12-16 finish is their best so far. It puts them in sixth place, just one win shy of fifth, and three wins out of the playoffs. Belgian is the only team to show better in each subsequent simulation: jumping from 5 to 10 wins, now to 12. This echoes the real-life scenario of the team, wherein those around the league are starting to see a real competitor there.

The Ducks rebound from a poor showing in the last simulation with 17 wins and making the playoffs as the third seed. Unlike Belgian, this outcome seems to run counter to popular opinion after the Ducks were bounced out of Satellite #1 without a win, and questions arose regarding the supposed dominance of their pitching. However, I'd wager this result is perfect for the Ducks, as history has shown us we should expect this team to surge back after a poor performance.

Once again the Wicked Aces finish with the Ringler Pennant and best regular season record; this time at 22-6, the best record seen yet in a simulation. For the second straight simulation, though, they fail to win the WSEM Championship. The team to beat them was again El Diablos, who also won the Garcia Division for the second consecutive time. El Diablos also finished the season with their best record yet: 19-9. These two teams are the preseason favorites, so it is no surprise to see simulated dynasties forming for the pair of them.

Meanwhile, both the Westside Warriors and Holy Balls took a one-game step back this time. That slipped the former from the third seed to fourth, sending them to Poolside Park for their first round series, and cost the latter a playoff berth. The Warriors still remain above .500 (15-13), though, while the Balls fall below .500 (13-15) for the first time. This can be directly attributed to the Warriors winning the head-to-head season series 3-1.

The biggest moves this simulation belong to King Friday and the Islanders. Both won four less games than previously, which pushed them down to 7th and 8th place, respectively.

No Home Field Advantage in Random Numbers

Five teams own .500 records or better at home, but only the Holy Balls managed more wins at home than they did on the road (7 at home, 6 on the road). Additionally, only the Islanders came away with an equal number of home and road wins.

Seeding by Simulation  Sim 1   Sim 2   Sim 3  Wicked Aces 2 1^ 1^ El Diablos 3 2^* 2^* Ducks 1^ 5 3 Westside Warriors 4 3 4 Holy Balls 5 4 5 King Friday 6 6 7 Belgian Wiffles 8 8 6 Islanders 7 7 8   ^ Pennant   * Championship Record by Simulation  Sim 1   Sim 2   Sim 3   OA  W L W L W L W L Wicked Aces 20 8 19 9 22 6 61 23 El Diablos 18 10 18 10 19 9 55 29 Ducks 20 8 13 15 17 11 50 34 Westside Warriors 15 13 16 12 15 13 46 38 Holy Balls 14 14 14 14 13 15 41 43 King Friday 13 15 12 16 8 20 33 51 Belgian Wiffles 5 23 10 18 12 16 27 57 Islanders 7 21 10 18 6 22 23 61

Simulated Season #2: The One Where Carl Looks like a Genius

  

For the second simulation I modified the numerical values used. Instead of the simple 1 through 8 scheme, I went with an EA Sports-esque rating out of 100 for each team based on an average of pitching, hitting, and fielding. The lowest rating came in at 69, the highest at 92. As before, the two numbers were added together and the road team was given the set of numbers from one to their rating; the home team then took the remaining numbers. Compared to the first simulation there is a much smaller gap between team records from top to bottom this time. Overall, though, the results do not change much. Three teams - Aces, El Diablos, and Westside Warriors - that were in the top four last time again find themselves in the playoffs. Also, once again placing 8th, 7th and 6th, respectively, are the Belgian Wiffles, Islanders (head-to-head tiebreaker over Belgian), and King Friday. The one big difference in the outcome is one of two things that makes Carl look like a genius.

Simulated Standings
Garcia Division	W	L
El Diablos 2	18	10
Ducks	13	15
Islanders 0	10	18
Belgian Wiffles 0	10	18
Ringler Division	W	L
Wicked Aces 1	19	9
Westside Warriors 3	16	12
Holy Balls 4	14	14
King Friday 0	12	16
27 - 37

On the last Podcast Carl was certain that the Ducks will have a repeat of their rough 2012 season, while I took the stance they will return to the elite of the league in 2013. Well, according to this simulation, Carl nailed it. They fall from first place (20-8) in the last simulation to 13-15, and miss the playoffs. Carl also correctly gauged the Warriors, while I seem to have underrated them. Carl said they will outperform the Ducks. They did here. In fact, the record he cited was 16-12; exactly what the Warriors put up, which is good enough for the third seed.

The second thing Carl schools me on in this simulation is calling that Ringler will be the stronger of the two divisions. I have gone on record stating I am certain Garcia will win the season series, and still stand by that. For the moment, though, I look like the fool. Sounds easy to tie together being wrong about the balance of power with the swap of the Ducks and Warriors in the standings, however, the Ducks were the only Garcia team to have a winning record (9-7) against Ringler teams. So, I cannot pin my wrongness entirely on the Ducks.

The best thing that makes this simulation different from the first, though, has nothing to do with Carl being smart or me being an idiot. We get to simulate the playoffs this time!

The Wicked Aces claim the number-one seed winning the Ringler pennant with a 19-9 record. El Diablos win the Garcia pennant and second seed repeating their 18-10 record from the first simulation, pitting them against the third seeded Westside Warriors. The Holy Balls reprise their 14-14 record, but this time sneak into the fourth slot ahead of the Ducks to face the Aces in the first round.

In the 1 vs. 4 series, the Holy Balls go down to Poolside Park and take the first game from the Aces. The Aces respond, however, winning the next two games to advance to the Championship Series. El Diablos take advantage of home field at Pervis Memorial and sweep the Warriors in two games, moving on to challenge the defending champions in a best of five.

Pervis Memorial hosts the first two games. The Aces come out strong and take game one, but El Diablos respond taking game two and sending the teams to Poolside Park with the series even at a game a piece. The Aces are hard to beat at home, but El Diablos keep the momentum rolling on the road and take games three and four. Once again making a first-year team WSEM Champion!

Seeding by Simulation  Sim 1   Sim 2  Wicked Aces 2 1^ El Diablos 3 2^* Ducks 1^ 5 Westside Warriors 4 3 Holy Balls 5 4 King Friday 6 6 Islanders 7 7 Belgian Wiffles 8 8   ^ Pennant   * Championship Record by Simulation  Sim 1   Sim 2   OA  W L W L W L Wicked Aces 20 8 19 9 39 17 El Diablos 18 10 18 10 36 20 Ducks 20 8 13 15 33 23 Westside Warriors 15 13 16 12 31 25 Holy Balls 14 14 14 14 28 28 King Friday 13 15 12 16 25 31 Islanders 7 21 10 18 17 39 Belgian Wiffles 5 23 10 18 15 41

Simulated Season #1: The One Without Divisions or Playoffs

   

Last November Carl gave us an all-time mock tournament, which featured every team that has and will ever play in WSEM. The 2011 Commandos, ranked 22nd of 27 teams, went on a mad run and lost to the 2012 Punchouts in the championship game. With preseason hype in MLB at full-steam, NFL mock drafts coming out more than a streaker's utensil, and the recent loss of the awesome Virtual Wings, I thought it a good time to adopt Carl's system and apply it to our upcoming season. Here is a quick refresher on how it works: I took the eight teams and ranked them 1 to 8; #8 gets 1 point and #1 gets 8 points. I modified Carl's method slightly and multiplied by 10 to get more numbers to better indicate "close games" along the way. Throw the numbers into a random number generator to decide wins, and voila! To simulate the four-game season series each team was given the first block of numbers for two road games and the highest block of numbers for two home games.

Simulated Standings
	W	L
Ducks ^	20	8
Wicked Aces	20	8
El Diablos	18	10
Westside Warriors	15	13
Holy Balls	14	14
King Friday	13	15
Belle Islanders	7	21
Belgian Wiffles	5	23
^ Clinch home field with h2h tiebreaker.

The returning champion Wicked Aces are the preseason number one (getting 80 numbers) with the retooled Garcia champion Ducks at number two (70 numbers). El Diablos are currently seen as the number three team (60 numbers), and the Westside Warriors follow at number four (50 numbers). Holy Balls at number five (40), King Friday with their recent signings at number six (30), Belgian Wiffles at number seven (20), and Belle Islanders at number eight (10) round out this very early preseason ranking.

You can see the results of this first simulated 2013 season in the table, and I will provide some insight on how this outcome came about and a few key games along the way. Obviously, all we know of the divisions until Saturday is that the Ducks are in Garcia. They win that pennant for the second straight season, and also get home field in the playoffs by going 3-1 against the Wicked Aces to get the tiebreaker. The Ducks also sweep two teams, Friday and Belgian, while going 3-1 against two others. The only teams they do not have a winning record against are the Islanders (2-2) and Warriors (1-3) - who they would face in round one.

The Wicked Aces 20-8 season mirrors the Ducks (duh!): two sweeps, three 3-1, a 2-2, and 1-3 series. All that keeps them out of the top spot is their 1-3 series coming to the Ducks. The Westside Warriors are the 2-2 series for the Aces; not only do those two Warriors wins decide the top seed, but they are clutch wins in the last games of the season that get the Warriors into the playoffs. The Warriors struggles came against El Diablos and Holy Balls: going 0-8 against them. However, they have winning records against everyone other than those two and the Aces.


Simulated Season #1 Top Seed El Diablos earn the three seed by beating the teams they were supposed to and dominating their closest competition, Warriors, with a sweep: none of those games were close, either. The bad news for El Diablos, though, is they have a 2-6 record against the Ducks and Aces. They were able to get a win at Poolside Park, though; so an upset in round one over the Wicked Aces would not be out of the question, no matter the format. Given the shot to pull that off, you know they would root for the Warriors over the Ducks on the other side.

Mentioned above, the Aces are not the only team burnt by the Warriors' two-game sweep on the final day of the season. The Holy Balls swept Westside on the season, but are jumped over by the Warriors and left out of the playoffs. What did the Balls in was being the only team to drop two games to Belgian, and dropping three games to King Friday. They also went 2-2 against El Diablos, meaning - unlike El Diablos - they did everything they were not supposed to: lose to teams below them, and beat teams that finished above.

Rounding out the seasons of the For the Thrill participants: King Friday dominated the Balls, Islanders, and Belgian getting ten of their thirteen wins against them, and were in the playoff hunt until the final week. The Belle Islanders got wins against six teams - all but the Aces. The problem is they were only able to beat one team twice: the Ducks. I suppose that alone is something to hang their hats on. The Belgian Wiffles on the other hand struggled across the board, being swept in five season series. They do have a winning record (5-3) against the Islanders and Balls, though.


It is surprising/vindicating/eerie [choose your adjective] how closely many of these W-L totals match up with early predictions being made around the league, give or take a game or two. In fact, just a few days ago someone was talking about how he expects the Warriors and Balls to tangle for that final playoff spot. Not liking the outlook? No worries. We will let the randomness sort one of these out every month or so, as we get a better idea about the teams. Additionally, after we decide playoff series length at the Winter Meeting, future installments will feature simulated playoffs for the complete virtual experience!