Last November Carl gave us an all-time mock tournament, which featured every team that has and will ever play in WSEM. The 2011 Commandos, ranked 22nd of 27 teams, went on a mad run and lost to the 2012 Punchouts in the championship game. With preseason hype in MLB at full-steam, NFL mock drafts coming out more than a streaker's utensil, and the recent loss of the awesome Virtual Wings, I thought it a good time to adopt Carl's system and apply it to our upcoming season. Here is a quick refresher on how it works: I took the eight teams and ranked them 1 to 8; #8 gets 1 point and #1 gets 8 points. I modified Carl's method slightly and multiplied by 10 to get more numbers to better indicate "close games" along the way. Throw the numbers into a random number generator to decide wins, and voila! To simulate the four-game season series each team was given the first block of numbers for two road games and the highest block of numbers for two home games.
The returning champion Wicked Aces are the preseason number one (getting 80 numbers) with the retooled Garcia champion Ducks at number two (70 numbers). El Diablos are currently seen as the number three team (60 numbers), and the Westside Warriors follow at number four (50 numbers). Holy Balls at number five (40), King Friday with their recent signings at number six (30), Belgian Wiffles at number seven (20), and Belle Islanders at number eight (10) round out this very early preseason ranking.
You can see the results of this first simulated 2013 season in the table, and I will provide some insight on how this outcome came about and a few key games along the way. Obviously, all we know of the divisions until Saturday is that the Ducks are in Garcia. They win that pennant for the second straight season, and also get home field in the playoffs by going 3-1 against the Wicked Aces to get the tiebreaker. The Ducks also sweep two teams, Friday and Belgian, while going 3-1 against two others. The only teams they do not have a winning record against are the Islanders (2-2) and Warriors (1-3) - who they would face in round one.
The Wicked Aces 20-8 season mirrors the Ducks (duh!): two sweeps, three 3-1, a 2-2, and 1-3 series. All that keeps them out of the top spot is their 1-3 series coming to the Ducks. The Westside Warriors are the 2-2 series for the Aces; not only do those two Warriors wins decide the top seed, but they are clutch wins in the last games of the season that get the Warriors into the playoffs. The Warriors struggles came against El Diablos and Holy Balls: going 0-8 against them. However, they have winning records against everyone other than those two and the Aces.
Simulated Season #1 Top Seed El Diablos earn the three seed by beating the teams they were supposed to and dominating their closest competition, Warriors, with a sweep: none of those games were close, either. The bad news for El Diablos, though, is they have a 2-6 record against the Ducks and Aces. They were able to get a win at Poolside Park, though; so an upset in round one over the Wicked Aces would not be out of the question, no matter the format. Given the shot to pull that off, you know they would root for the Warriors over the Ducks on the other side.
Mentioned above, the Aces are not the only team burnt by the Warriors' two-game sweep on the final day of the season. The Holy Balls swept Westside on the season, but are jumped over by the Warriors and left out of the playoffs. What did the Balls in was being the only team to drop two games to Belgian, and dropping three games to King Friday. They also went 2-2 against El Diablos, meaning - unlike El Diablos - they did everything they were not supposed to: lose to teams below them, and beat teams that finished above.
Rounding out the seasons of the For the Thrill participants: King Friday dominated the Balls, Islanders, and Belgian getting ten of their thirteen wins against them, and were in the playoff hunt until the final week. The Belle Islanders got wins against six teams - all but the Aces. The problem is they were only able to beat one team twice: the Ducks. I suppose that alone is something to hang their hats on. The Belgian Wiffles on the other hand struggled across the board, being swept in five season series. They do have a winning record (5-3) against the Islanders and Balls, though.
It is surprising/vindicating/eerie [choose your adjective] how closely many of these W-L totals match up with early predictions being made around the league, give or take a game or two. In fact, just a few days ago someone was talking about how he expects the Warriors and Balls to tangle for that final playoff spot. Not liking the outlook? No worries. We will let the randomness sort one of these out every month or so, as we get a better idea about the teams. Additionally, after we decide playoff series length at the Winter Meeting, future installments will feature simulated playoffs for the complete virtual experience!
| Simulated Standings | ||
| W | L | |
| Ducks ^ | 20 | 8 |
| Wicked Aces | 20 | 8 |
| El Diablos | 18 | 10 |
| Westside Warriors | 15 | 13 |
| Holy Balls | 14 | 14 |
| King Friday | 13 | 15 |
| Belle Islanders | 7 | 21 |
| Belgian Wiffles | 5 | 23 |
| ^ Clinch home field with h2h tiebreaker. | ||
You can see the results of this first simulated 2013 season in the table, and I will provide some insight on how this outcome came about and a few key games along the way. Obviously, all we know of the divisions until Saturday is that the Ducks are in Garcia. They win that pennant for the second straight season, and also get home field in the playoffs by going 3-1 against the Wicked Aces to get the tiebreaker. The Ducks also sweep two teams, Friday and Belgian, while going 3-1 against two others. The only teams they do not have a winning record against are the Islanders (2-2) and Warriors (1-3) - who they would face in round one.
The Wicked Aces 20-8 season mirrors the Ducks (duh!): two sweeps, three 3-1, a 2-2, and 1-3 series. All that keeps them out of the top spot is their 1-3 series coming to the Ducks. The Westside Warriors are the 2-2 series for the Aces; not only do those two Warriors wins decide the top seed, but they are clutch wins in the last games of the season that get the Warriors into the playoffs. The Warriors struggles came against El Diablos and Holy Balls: going 0-8 against them. However, they have winning records against everyone other than those two and the Aces.
Simulated Season #1 Top Seed El Diablos earn the three seed by beating the teams they were supposed to and dominating their closest competition, Warriors, with a sweep: none of those games were close, either. The bad news for El Diablos, though, is they have a 2-6 record against the Ducks and Aces. They were able to get a win at Poolside Park, though; so an upset in round one over the Wicked Aces would not be out of the question, no matter the format. Given the shot to pull that off, you know they would root for the Warriors over the Ducks on the other side.
Mentioned above, the Aces are not the only team burnt by the Warriors' two-game sweep on the final day of the season. The Holy Balls swept Westside on the season, but are jumped over by the Warriors and left out of the playoffs. What did the Balls in was being the only team to drop two games to Belgian, and dropping three games to King Friday. They also went 2-2 against El Diablos, meaning - unlike El Diablos - they did everything they were not supposed to: lose to teams below them, and beat teams that finished above.
Rounding out the seasons of the For the Thrill participants: King Friday dominated the Balls, Islanders, and Belgian getting ten of their thirteen wins against them, and were in the playoff hunt until the final week. The Belle Islanders got wins against six teams - all but the Aces. The problem is they were only able to beat one team twice: the Ducks. I suppose that alone is something to hang their hats on. The Belgian Wiffles on the other hand struggled across the board, being swept in five season series. They do have a winning record (5-3) against the Islanders and Balls, though.
It is surprising/vindicating/eerie [choose your adjective] how closely many of these W-L totals match up with early predictions being made around the league, give or take a game or two. In fact, just a few days ago someone was talking about how he expects the Warriors and Balls to tangle for that final playoff spot. Not liking the outlook? No worries. We will let the randomness sort one of these out every month or so, as we get a better idea about the teams. Additionally, after we decide playoff series length at the Winter Meeting, future installments will feature simulated playoffs for the complete virtual experience!
My 2013 over/unders compared to the simulations.
ReplyDeleteDucks 20 wins- Under
Aces 20 wins- Over
El Diablos 18 wins- Under
Warriors 15 wins- Over
Balls 14 wins- Perfect
Friday 13 wins- Under
Islanders 7 wins- Under
Belgian 5 wins- Over
-Prince Tuesday
If I remember correctly from last weekend's 'lost tapes', the Aces are "waaaaay over" for you. I'm surprised you confidently take the over for Warriors with Hatt on the (season ending?) DL; I saw him as the key to their success on both sides of the ball, even in a limited role.
ReplyDelete