Off to the Races

		Your Junk my Happy Zone
		by Brandon Corbett

Under two weeks remain in the 2011 WSEM regular season, and the races for first round home field advantage are sufficiently heated up. On July 23rd or 24th each first round three game series will be played in its entirety at the home field of the higher seed (one through four). There is a large spread in the number of games yet to be played by teams, anywhere between one and twelve, so there is quite literally a lot at play still in these races. Let's start at the top, but first a shout out to the only team mathematically eliminated: keep your heads up 'Seals! You're not stuck in the cellar just yet!


The Race for
1st / 2nd

Team		Current		Lowest		Expected		Highest
Git r' Done		14 - 2		14 - 14		24 - 4		26 - 2
Wiffling DeLoppes		19 - 5		19 - 9		23 - 5		23 - 5

Games remaining:

GD: CC x 4 ... JM x 2 ... AK x 2 ... WD x 2 ... WW x 2
WD: AK x 2 ... GD x 2

Tie breakers: (currently)
Head-to-head: series tied 1-1
Run differential: WD (+123) … GD (+65)

The DeLoppes and Git r' Done will meet on the final day of the season (7/17) in a tri-meet with the Ass Kickers, and I fully expect the DeLoppes to win both games. The DeLoppes are the better team, but that doesn't mean they will win the pennant. Git r' Done will need to slip up and take a loss against one of their other opponents (Warriors or Ass Kickers would be the likelier candidates) in order for the DeLoppes to win the pennant and number-one seed; the DeLoppes would hold both tie breakers with wins in the head-to-head series. Git r' Done holds their fate in their own hands, though: if they take care of business, the pennant and top seed are theirs.

The Race for
3rd / 4th

Team		Current		Lowest		Expected		Highest
Westside Warriors		12 - 10		12 - 16		15 - 13		18 - 10
Flying Squirrels		12 - 12		12 - 16		14 - 14		16 - 12
Belgian Wiffles *		12 - 15		12-16		13 - 15		13 - 15
Ass Kickers		7 - 13		7 - 21		10 - 18		15 - 13
Campus Commandos		6 - 11		6 - 22		8 - 20		17 - 11

Games remaining:

WW: AK x 2 ... FS x 2 ... GD x 2
FS: CC x 2 ... WW x 2
BW: CC x 1
AK: CC x 2 ... GD x 2 ... WW x 2 ... WD x 2
CC: GD x 4 ... BW x 1 ... FS x 2 ... JM x 2 ... AK x2

Tie breakers: (currently)

Head-to-Head:
WW: over BW and CC … even (1-1) FS and AK
FS: over BW and AK … even (1-1) WW and CC
CC: over (2-0) AK … even (1-1) FS
AK: over BW … even (1-1) WW
BW: over CC 000 * eliminated from 3rd by WW or FS guaranteed 13 wins + tiebreaker

Run Differential:
BW (+8) … AK (-3) … WW (-9) … FS (-25) … CC (-45)

There are a lot of games to play and a lot can happen still in these races. In fact Git r' Done could fall to third, fourth, or even out of the home-field advantage places, but c'mon... let's be real; that won't happen. The most scoreboard watching over the final weeks will be done by the Belgian Wiffles. They have one game left to play, a game they need to win, and then will have to hope other teams lose in order to get one of the top four seeds and home field advantage. Belgian can at best place fourth, since both the Warriors and Squirrels hold the head-to-head tie breaker over them and at least one of those teams is guaranteed to end up with at least 13 wins, as well. It's a long shot for Belgian, but hey, it's a shot.

Over the next three days we'll watch the Commandos fate play out. They are playing nine games this weekend, all of their remaining schedule, besides two against the Ass Kickers. Not to be a harbinger... but it looks ominous. First of all, nine games in a weekend is a heavy load and they'll be tired and sore probably by Saturday morning. They'll also be on the road for the second two days, which will even further hinder their chances of success. Even the games against the Mattseals aren't easy victories to pencil in at this point with Hewlett on the mound. The Commandos have put together a better season than expected, but this weekend will silence any premature stories of their Cinderella run to the top.

The Ass Kickers big obstacle to overcome is actually two very large hurdles: Git r' Done and the DeLoppes. Four games, half of their remaining schedule and games they really need to put in the win column, against the two best teams. If they are unable to muscle away at least two wins in those series, then they'll be out of the running for home field advantage with 17 losses. You know what they say, though: if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best.

More than likely third and fourth place will belong to the Warriors and Squirrels, respectively. Both teams can play .500 ball the rest of the way and still coast into those spots fairly comfortably; sparing, of course, a wild late season run from one of the teams previously mentioned. Aside from two games head-to-head, the Warriors have the harder schedule: Git r' Done and the Ass Kickers. The Squirrels have only two other games against the Commandos amid their marathon-like sprint. What that means is when the Warriors and Squirrels meet up for two games in Farmington on the 13th that series has the potential to be a big one: possibly determining the third and fourth seeds going into the playoffs.